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财经观察中东紧张局势急剧升级凸显油价波动风险
2020-01-08 00:20  www.petitewanders.com

  伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼3日在美军实施的袭击中身亡。分析人士认为,这一事件凸显中东地缘政治紧张可能给2020年国际石油市场造成冲击的风险,投资者需要为更多油价短时显著波动做好准备。

Qassim Suleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps \"Al-Quds Brigade,\" died in an attack carried out by U.S. forces on Wednesday. Analysts believe the incident highlights the risk that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could hit international oil markets by 2020, with investors needing to prepare for more short-term significant volatility in oil prices.

  受这一消息影响,交易员们本能选择避险,纽约油价和布伦特油价3日盘中一度分别上涨%和%,布伦特油价距离每桶70美元的整数关口仅一步之遥。

Traders instinctively opted to take refuge on the news, with New York oil and Brent oil rising at one point in intraday trading by% and%, respectively, just a step away from the $70-per-barrel integer mark.

  美国斯特拉斯福公司高级全球分析师马修·贝表示,这一袭击可能挑起伊朗和伊拉克国内支持伊朗势力的严重报复,或导致海湾地区和中东其他地区石油基础设施受损。

Matthew Bay, a senior global analyst at the U.S. firm Strasford, said the attack could provoke serious retaliation from Iranian and Iraqi domestic support for Iranian forces or damage to oil infrastructure in the Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East.

  今年9月,沙特国家石油公司两处石油设施遭无人机袭击并引发火灾。也门胡塞武装宣布实施了袭击,但美国指责伊朗是袭击的幕后黑手,伊朗对此予以否认。石油设施遇袭一度导致沙特原油日产量大幅减少,触发油价飙升。

In September, two Saudi Aramco oil installations were attacked by drones and sparked a fire. Yemen's Houthi forces announced the attack, but the United States accused Iran of being behind the attack, which Iran denies. The attack on oil facilities once led to a sharp reduction in Saudi crude daily production, triggering a surge in oil prices.

  能源视线咨询公司首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森表示,由于人们都在关心伊朗将会采取何种报复举措,市场做出本能应激反应,油价因此会出现3%或4%的涨幅。

Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energyline Consulting, said oil prices would rise by 3% or 4% as markets responded instinctively to concerns about what retaliatory measures Iran would take.

  美国史蒂弗尼古拉斯公司执行董事巴里·班尼斯特日前表示,石油市场受冲击是美国经济2020年面临的两大风险之一,中东紧张局势可能在年中导致油价大幅上涨。

Barry Banister, executive director of Stevie Nicholas Inc., said yesterday that the oil market shock is one of the two biggest risks facing the U.S. economy in 2020, and that tensions in the Middle East could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices in the middle of the year.

  瑞银集团旗下对冲基金瑞银奥康纳公司首席投资官凯文·拉塞尔表示,市场应该对油价可能发生的大幅变化做好准备。

Kevin Russell, chief investment officer at UBS O'Connor, a hedge fund owned by UBS, said the market should be prepared for a big change in oil prices that could take place.

  新华财经分析师郑彬认为,去年10月以来上升趋势一直主导油价走势,地缘风险加剧无疑进一步强化了这一方向。同时,主要产油国减产计划也将在本月开始落实,这也支撑油价上涨。

Zheng Bin, a financial analyst at Xinhua, believes that the upward trend since October has dominated oil prices, and that the heightened geopolitical risk has undoubtedly further strengthened this direction. At the same time, plans to cut production in major oil-producing countries will start this month, which will also support higher oil prices.

  不过,一些分析人士认为,在当前石油库存充足、产能富余的供需格局下,地缘政治紧张难以令油价持续居于高位。

However, some analysts believe geopolitical tensions are hard to keep oil prices high in the current pattern of supply and demand with abundant oil stocks and spare capacity.

  瑞银集团财富管理全球首席投资官马克·黑费尔3日表示,如果中东形势恶化,石油供应中断,会使原油价格大幅上涨,给经济和金融市场带来冲击。不过,国际石油市场目前产能充足,石油输出国组织(欧佩克)和俄罗斯目前均有富余产能。此外,由于美国和挪威等产油国供应增长,预计2020年尤其是上半年会出现每日30万桶的供应过剩。

UBS's global chief investment officer for wealth management, Mark Heifer, said on Wednesday that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates and oil supplies are disrupted, it could send crude oil prices sharply higher, hitting economic and financial markets. However, the international oil market is full of capacity, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia have spare capacity. Moreover, an oversupply of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) is projected for 2020, especially in the first half, as oil producing countries such as the United States and Norway grow.

  黑费尔认为,尽管目前中东紧张局势很可能使国际油价出现大的风险溢价,但2020年上半年布伦特原油期货价格要维持在每桶70美元上方比较困难。地缘政治事件本质上不可预测,此前此类事件对市场大范围的影响均比较短暂。

While the current tensions in the Middle East are likely to give international oil prices a big risk premium, it is harder for Brent crude oil futures to stay above $70 a barrel in the first half of 2020, he said. Geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, after a relatively short-lived impact on the broader market.

  阿姆里塔·森认为,伊朗如采取报复措施需要花费一些时间,这期间油价将回吐一些涨幅。除非真的发生供应中断,否则当前油价上涨不会持续。

Amrita Sen believes it will take some time for Iran to retaliate, during which oil prices will return some gains. Unless there is a real supply disruption, the current oil price rise will not be sustained.