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苏莱曼尼死了,但美国的麻烦才真正开始,政治上犯了大忌
2020-01-08 01:14  www.petitewanders.com

美军用一次成功的空袭,杀死了伊朗革命卫队“圣城旅”大名鼎鼎的指挥官苏莱曼尼,这件事成为2020年第一个国际焦点新闻,因为这件事影响或远远超出外界的预计:对于已经混乱不堪的中东局势而言,麻烦可能才刚刚开始。

The killing of the well-known commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Al-Quds Brigade, Sulaymani, by a successful air strike by the United States, became the first international spotlight in 2020, because it affected or far exceeded expectations: trouble could just start in an already chaotic Middle East.

美国总统特朗普得意地在推特上写道,“伊朗从没赢过一场战争,但也从没输过一场谈判。”借助杀死苏莱曼尼的声势,他向伊朗提出了谈判要求,他的想法很简单:美国很强大,伊朗绝不敢采取什么过激的保护手段,如果不接受谈判,美国将继续采用这种定点清除的手段继续削弱伊朗,直到伊朗认输。

\"Iran has never won a war, but has never lost a negotiation,\" US President Donald Trump tweeted triumphantly. Using the momentum to kill mr suleimani, he made a negotiating plea to iran, which is simple: the united states is so strong that iran would not dare to resort to any drastic means of protection, and if it did not accept the negotiations, the u.s. would continue to use such targeted measures to weaken iran until iran concedes defeat.

显然,特朗普认为他给伊朗设置了一个无法打破的陷阱:要么在谈判中输掉一切,要么在空袭中输掉一切。但问题只有一个,事情真的会向他希望的方向发展吗?

Clearly, Trump believes he has set an unbreakable trap for Iran: losing everything in negotiations or everything in airstrikes. But there's only one question, will things really go the way he wants them to?

很明显,对于伊朗而言,直接投降认输和认认真真但打输了是两种完全不同的概念,特朗普的谈判要求,在伊朗看来和劝降书没有差别,在美国极限施压下,伊朗损失已经不小,投降只会一无所有并且被民众彻底抛弃——事实上,美军的这次空袭,将美国和伊朗一同拉进了一个囚徒困境:要么两败俱伤、要么赢者通吃。

Obviously, for Iran, direct surrender and serious defeat are two completely different concepts, and Trump's negotiating demands, in Iran's view and persuasion, are no different, and under the pressure of America's limits, Iran's losses are not small, surrender will be nothing, and it will be abandoned entirely by the people – indeed, this US air strike has brought the United States and Iran together into a prisoner's dilemma: either lose or win.

美军杀死苏莱曼尼之后,伊朗立刻宣布将“严厉报复”,这不是虚言恫吓,而是被美国逼到最后角落的最后警告,而且伊朗的报复很可能不仅局限于伊拉克,而是还包括在叙利亚,甚至可能连同以色列、沙特这些美国的地区盟友,都在伊朗的报复范围之内。

Immediately after US forces killed Suleimani, Iran announced that it would \"exact revenge,\" not a false threat, but a final warning from the United States to the last corner, and that Iran's retaliation may well not be confined to Iraq, but also in Syria, and possibly even, along with regional allies of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

据路透社报道,以色列军队已经进入最高戒备状态,毕竟现今美伊之间的紧张状态,根源就是以色列自己,它用假情报说服特朗普废除伊核协议、重启针对伊朗的全面制裁,成为报复对象是天经地义的事情。

The israeli army is on top alert, after all, and the tension between the u.s. and iran is rooted in israel itself, using false intelligence to convince mr. trump to repeal the iranian nuclear deal and restart full-scale sanctions against iran as a target of retaliation.

这样的局面对美国而言绝非好事,这将意味着中东再次变成一个更加混乱的泥潭,而美军在其中将会越陷越深,这跟特朗普此前的承诺完全相悖,一旦美军陷入一场不亚于当初伊拉克那样的泥潭,显然是美军不愿意看到的。

Such a situation would not be good for the United States, which would mean that the Middle East would once again become a more chaotic quagmire, in which the US military would become more and more deeply involved, in total contradiction to Trump's previous commitments, and that once the US military was in a quagmire no less than that of Iraq, the US military would not want to see it.

很明显,美军这次对巴格达的空袭,不仅不能消除伊朗对伊拉克政府的影响力,然而可能激起伊拉克政府更大的反感,如果说美军这次行动在军事上非常成功,那么在政治上很可能就是一次重大失误。

It is clear that the u. s.air strike in baghdad not only does not remove iran's influence over the iraqi government, but it could provoke a greater antipathy, and if the u. s.military operation is very successful militarily, it could be a major political mistake.

武力实际上从未真正解决过任何问题,只不过是将问题掩盖起来,区别只是“掩盖”的程度不同而已,苏莱曼尼的死很可能会变成中东局势的一个重要拐点,如果到那个时候,美国才想抽身?想想阿富汗吧!

Force has actually never really solved any problem, but only to cover up the problem, the difference is only “cover up ” degree is only different, Suleimani's death is likely to become an important inflection point of the situation in the Middle East, if not until then, the United States want to withdraw? Think of Afghanistan!