站内查询
您现在的位置是:主页 > 网投平台app > 投資下一個世界工廠——越南
投資下一個世界工廠——越南
2020-01-11 18:04  www.petitewanders.com

  近日,境内首只专门投资越南市场的主题基金——天弘越南市场股票型发起式证券投资基金正式公开发售。招募说明书显示,该基金股票资产占基金资产的比例不低于80%,投资于越南主题企业发行的股票、存托凭证等的比例不低于非现金基金资产的80%。

Recently, the territory's first dedicated investment in the Vietnamese market, the theme fund - the stock-based launch of the stock-based investment funds officially released. According to the prospectus, the fund's equity assets account for no less than 80 per cent of the fund's assets, and its investments in Vietnamese-themed companies are no less than 80 per cent of non-cash fund assets.

  事实上,将目光投向越南这个新兴市场的不只天弘基金一家。科普利基金数据显示,2011年以来,越来越多的基金经理开始投资越南,越南占全球新兴市场基金平均规模不断提高,目前已达%。券商、国有银行也纷纷开始在越南布局。此外,中金前哨调研小组报告显示,2019年前11个月,越南来自中国内地的FDI(国际直接投资)协议资金规模已达亿美元,同比大幅增长%;投资项目数量则是大幅攀升至615个,同比增长%。

Indeed, it is not just the tianhong fund that is looking to vietnam, an emerging market. Since 2011, more and more fund managers have started to invest in vietnam, which accounts for an increasing percentage of emerging market funds worldwide on average and now stands at%, according to the copley fund. Brokers and state-owned banks are also beginning to lay out in Vietnam. Moreover, in the first 11 months of 2019, Vietnam's FDI (international direct investment) agreements from mainland China amounted to $100 million, a sharp increase of% year-on-year, while the number of investment projects jumped to 615, an increase of% year-on-year, according to the CICS research group.

  除了券商和公募基金,国有五大行也悄然完成了在越南的布局。截至2018年6月底,中国五大国有银行——“中农工建交”均已在越南设立分行,在当地分支机构增至7个。其中,中行、建行和交行的分行设在胡志明市,工行和农行的分行设在河内市。此外,工行和农行还各设了一个办事处。

In addition to brokers and public funds, the state-owned five banks have quietly completed the layout in Vietnam. By the end of June 2018, China's top five state-owned banks, the establishment of Sino-industrial relations, had all set up branches in Vietnam, increasing to seven local branches. Among them, the branches of Bank of China, Bank of China and Bank of Communications are located in Ho Chi Minh City, and the branches of ICBC and Agricultural Bank are located in Hanoi City. In addition, ICBC and AgBank each have an office.

  “对于收购当地的证券公司,越南证券交易所是持开放和欢迎态度的,而且手续不会很复杂。”曾在2019年前往越南河内交易所调研的智信财经总裁蔡敏玉告诉证券时报记者,越南对外商抱持的开放态度是吸引中国金融机构入驻的原因之一。

The “is open and welcoming to the acquisition of local securities firms, and the procedures will not be complicated." Tsai min-yu, president of finance and economics at zhixin, who went to vietnam's hanoi exchange for research in 2019, told the securities times that vietnam's openness to foreign investors was one of the reasons for attracting chinese financial institutions.

  在不少研究人士看来,越南的发展跟中国有着相似的路径。中金前哨调研小组2019年的越南调研,也印证了大众对越南的这个普遍印象。调研小组研究结果显示,从人均GDP看,目前越南相当于中国的2006~2007年,不到3000美元;过去40年,越南实际GDP增速的趋势与中国大体一致,但平均要低于中国2个百分点。

For many researchers, vietnam has a similar path to that of china. The 2019 survey of Vietnam by the CICC outposts also confirmed the popular impression of Vietnam. In terms of GDP per capita, Vietnam now equals China's 2006-2007 figure of less than $3,000, according to the research group.

  2018年越南实际GDP增速达%,高于中国%的增长水平。按照越南官方信息,2019年前三季度,越南GDP同比实际增长%。

Vietnam's real GDP grew by% in 2018, above China's growth rate of%. According to Vietnam's official information, in the first three quarters of 2019, Vietnam's GDP grew by% year-on-year.

  从三架马车拉动看,与中国相比,越南消费对GDP增长的贡献要显著高于投资,净出口的贡献则呈现一定波动性。调研过程中,调研组也了解到,越南政府高度重视学习广东省改革开放发展的经验,广东省是越南唯一一个以国家的名义与中国地方政府签署合作协议的省份。被调研企业都认为,坚持对外开放、吸收外商投资仍将是未来越南政府积极融入世界的重要举措。

Compared with China, the contribution of Vietnamese consumption to GDP growth is significantly higher than that of investment, while the contribution of net exports is volatile. During the research, the research group also learned that the Vietnamese government attaches great importance to learning from the experience of reform and opening up in Guangdong Province, the only province in Vietnam to sign a cooperation agreement with the local government in the name of the country. All of the companies surveyed believe that insisting on opening up to the outside world and absorbing foreign investment will still be an important step for the Vietnamese government to actively integrate into the world in the future.

  从股市看,随着经济的高速发展,越南股市也表现强劲。作为衡量越南市场最主流的指数之一,胡志明指数(VN指数)2017年以%的涨幅领涨全球市场;2019年该指数涨幅为%。VN30指数2015~2019年累计上涨%,年化收益率为%。科普利基金研究的数据显示,目前%的新兴市场股票基金持有越南股票,是2014年初的3倍。

From the stock market, with the rapid development of the economy, Vietnam's stock market performance is also strong. The Ho Chi Minh Index (VN), one of the most mainstream measures of Vietnam's market, led the global market in 2017 with a% gain; it rose by% in 2019. The VN30 index rose cumulatively by% from 2015 to 2019, with an annualized yield of%. Currently,% of emerging market equity funds hold three times as many Vietnamese stocks as in early 2014, according to data from the Copley Foundation.

  近年,外资企业不断涌入越南市场,使越南被视为下一个“世界工厂”。中金前哨调研小组调研发现,日本和韩国一直是越南吸收FDI的主要来源。多年来,来自日本和韩国的投资合计占越南吸收FDI的比重长期维持在40%左右,2017、2018年更是分别达到48%和45%的高位水平。相比之下,中国进入越南投资布局是相对滞后的。

In recent years, the influx of foreign companies into the Vietnam market has made Vietnam regarded as the next “world factory ”. The China-Korea outpost research group found that Japan and South Korea have been the main sources of FDI absorption in Vietnam. Over the years, investments from japan and south korea combined accounted for about 40% of vietnam's FDI, reaching high levels of 48% in 2017 and 45% in 2018. In contrast, China's entry into Vietnam's investment layout is relatively lagging.

  2006年起,中国企业开始有规模地在越南进行投资布局。从纺织业、机电设备到电子设备等,从单个企业的转移,到整个产业的转移,中国企业进军越南的方向更加明确、执行力更强。数据显示,2019年前11个月,越南来自中国内地的FDI协议资金规模达亿美元,低基数下同比增长%,占比进一步提升至%。

Since 2006, chinese companies have begun to invest heavily in vietnam. From the textile industry, mechanical and electrical equipment to electronic equipment, from the transfer of a single enterprise to the transfer of the whole industry, the direction of the Chinese enterprises to Vietnam is more clear and the execution is stronger. In the first 11 months of 2019, Vietnam's FDI agreements from mainland China amounted to $100 million, a year-on-year increase of% at a low base, further increasing to%.

  中金前哨调研小组从一家位于越南海防的中国境外经贸合作区了解到,相比一年前,2019年上半年来园区考察的企业更加密集,知名企业数量更多。其中,以电子设备行业最热,家具、机电设备、计算机等企业也较多。

The CICC outpost research group learned from a Sino-foreign economic and trade cooperation zone in Vietnam's coastal defense that the park has been more densely visited and more well-known than a year ago in the first half of 2019. Among them, the most hot electronic equipment industry, furniture, mechanical and electrical equipment, computers and other enterprises are also more.

  “这几年越南给我的感受是,确实有其优势,包括人力成本低、工人素质较高等。比如光伏产业、饲料产业,都吸引了很多国内企业过去,而且经营情况都不错。”看到有不少国际大机构都开始在越南开设分支机构后,广西柳州私募基金机构容易投资总经理陈诚对越南也产生了兴趣,过去三年,陈诚每年都前往越南调研。“如果说中资企业进入越南的时代是由央企主导的基础设施建设投资,那现在时代,则是越来越以民营企业为主了。”考察了越南的水产、旅游、房地产之后,陈诚觉得越南的水产和旅游等消费行业发展潜力巨大,“我们也即将发行投资越南股市的基金。”

“What Vietnam has given me in recent years is that it does have advantages, including low human costs and high quality of workers. For example, the photovoltaic industry and feed industry have attracted a lot of domestic enterprises in the past, and the operation is good. Chen cheng, managing director of guangxi liuzhou's easy-to-investing private equity fund, has also taken an interest in vietnam after seeing a number of major international institutions start opening branches in vietnam. In the past three years, chen has been studying vietnam every year. "If the time when Chinese companies entered Vietnam was a state-led investment in infrastructure, it is becoming more and more predominantly private." After examining vietnam's aquatic products, tourism and real estate, mr chen said the country's aquatic products and tourism and other consumer industries have huge potential," we are also about to issue funds to invest in vietnam stock market."

  “中国企业在越南的影响力是很大的,因为一些中国企业招聘越南员工比他们本国企业开的工资更高,很多越南人也愿意去中国企业工作,因此现在中文在越南的普及度也很高了。”蔡敏玉对记者表示。

“Chinese companies are very influential in Vietnam, because some Chinese companies are hiring more Vietnamese workers than their own companies, and many Vietnamese are willing to work for Chinese companies, so the popularity of Chinese is now high in Vietnam. Cai Minyu told reporters.

  中金前哨调研小组拜访的几家龙头公司也明确表示,他们已明显感觉到订单从中国内地转移过来的趋势,这些企业预计未来一段时间,越南工厂的订单和收入规模都有望实现大幅增长。这几家中国公司都明确表示未来会进一步扩大越南的产能、丰富产品种类、完善产品线,形成更全面的加工配套能力,促进越南工厂与中国内地工厂的协同与合作,更好地实现公司整体的平衡发展。

Several leading companies visited by the CICC outposts also made it clear that they have clearly sensed a shift in orders from mainland China, and that they expect orders and revenues from Vietnamese factories to rise sharply over time. All these Chinese companies have made it clear that they will further expand the capacity of Vietnam in the future, enrich the variety of products, improve the product line, form a more comprehensive processing and supporting capacity, promote the coordination and cooperation between Vietnamese factories and factories in mainland China, and better realize the overall balanced development of the company.

  据了解,越南证券市场在上世纪90年代末成立之初仅有两只股票上市。但截至2019年10月15日,越南股市总市值已达亿美元。按全球行业分类系统(GICS)分类看,金融、房地产是越南股市中占比最大的两个板块,市值占比分别为27%和26%。

Vietnam's stock market is understood to have listed only two stocks in the late 1990s. But as of October 15,2019, Vietnam's total stock market value had reached $100 million. According to the Global Industry Classification System (GICS), finance and real estate are the two largest sectors of the Vietnamese stock market, accounting for 27 per cent and 26 per cent of the market value.

  从境外资本持股比例看,越南交易所规定外资持股比例从最初的不得高于20%,后来逐步提高到49%。目前,除了银行等个别重要行业仍控制在30%的外资持股比例外,包括券商在内的诸多行业已放开到100%。

In terms of offshore capital holdings, the Vietnamese exchange's foreign-owned shares have increased from no more than 20 per cent in the first place to 49 per cent in the second. In addition to holding 30 per cent of foreign ownership in other important sectors such as banks, many sectors, including brokerages, have been liberalized to 100 per cent.

  国泰君安国际研究数据显示,目前,越南证券市场已吸引大批境内外投资者踊跃入市,证券账户数量从2000年的3000户增至2017年的190万户,其中境外投资者账户约万户。2018年海外投资者净买入额从2017年的26万亿越南盾猛增%,达到43万亿越南盾,主要来自日本、韩国、新加坡和美国等。

At present, Vietnam's stock market has attracted a large number of domestic and foreign investors to enter the market, with the number of securities accounts increasing from 3,000 in 2000 to 1.9 million in 2017, of which about 10,000 are foreign investors, according to Guotai Junan International Research data. Net purchases by overseas investors jumped in 2018 from 26 trillion dong in 2017 to 43 trillion dong, mainly from Japan, South Korea, Singapore and the United States.

  国泰君安国际研究报告认为,越南的发展路径和我国高度重合,是中国改革开放的翻版,当前越南市场经历的国企私有化过程,类似2005年的中国股改。回顾2005年的中国股改,中国A股未上市公司处于业绩拐点,2006~2007年A股业绩迎来大爆发,股改上市企业的ROE均值从2005年的%提升到2007年的%,2007年净利润增速均值更高达72%,推动上证指数在2006年、2007年分别上涨130%和97%。因此,预计越南国企私有化同样会为越南股市带来重大机遇和巨大的套利空间。

Guotai junan international research report, vietnam's development path and china's high coincidence, is a copy of china's reform and opening up, the current vietnamese market experienced the process of privatization of state-owned enterprises, similar to the 2005 chinese stock reform. Reviewing China's stock reform in 2005, China's A-share unlisted companies were at an inflection point in their performance, and the A-share performance in 2006-2007 witnessed a major explosion, with the ROE of the listed companies rising from% in 2005 to% in 2007 and the net profit growth rate of up to 72% in 2007, driving the Shanghai index up 130% and 97% in 2006 and 2007 respectively. Therefore, it is expected that the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Vietnam will also bring significant opportunities and huge arbitrage space for Vietnamese stock market.

  “我对越南股市持谨慎乐观的态度。”陈诚分析,乐观的原因在于,目前越南总人口在9500多万,股民人数约占3%,股市账户的保证金平均在1万美元左右,两个数据都有很大的提升空间。但是,目前越南股市已有点像香港股市,大盘蓝筹股更受青睐,平均市盈率已到30倍,并不低,而且对外资持股比例还有限制,而中小企业的财务问题还不太让人放心;中国股市初期的“股权分置”问题在越南股市也存在。“另外,胡志明是一个国际化程度很高的城市,我接触到不少投资机构的员工都是欧美籍贯。中资投资机构如果想进行降维打击,可能没有想象中那么容易。”陈诚说。

“I'm cautiously optimistic about the Vietnamese stock market." The reason for optimism, mr. chen says, is that there is now more than 95 million people in vietnam, about 3% of shareholders and an average margin of about $10,000 for stock market accounts, both of which have a lot of room for improvement. However, Vietnam's stock market has become a bit like Hong Kong's, with big blue-chip stocks favored, with an average price-to-earnings ratio of 30, not low, and restrictions on foreign holdings, while the financial problems of small and medium-sized enterprises are less reassuring; and the "share-sharing" problem in the early days of the Chinese stock market is also in the Vietnamese stock market. "In addition, Ho Chi Minh is a very international city, and I have access to many investment institutions whose employees are native to Europe and the United States. Chinese investors may not be as easy as they think if they want to take a dimension reduction hit. Chen Cheng said.